AGP Executive Report

Food and Climate: Dunya Analytics warns that the 2026–27 El Niño is already hurting crop yields across several regions and could drive global food prices up 9%, with shocks lasting into 2028. Methane Rules: The EU has proposed delaying some methane monitoring requirements for fossil-fuel imports by a year, citing energy-price and supply concerns; member states and the European Parliament must still approve the change. Vanishing Ice: A new review finds glaciers in the contiguous United States have lost 35% of their area since the mid-20th century, with more than 300 disappearing. Climate Finance: Developing countries, led by Nigeria at the G-24 meeting, called for fairer access to finance and $300 billion a year in climate funding. At the Africa Climate Forum, stakeholders urged governments and businesses to turn climate promises into practical benefits for communities. Wetland Warning: Drought and changes to water management may be drying Sanibel Island wetlands, threatening habitat and food sources for birds and other wildlife.

Climate-Ready Farming: The Philippines has completed 170 solar-powered irrigation projects in Calabarzon to help farmers cope with prolonged dry conditions and reduce reliance on fuel-powered pumps. Data Center Limits: Oregon’s governor ordered a pause on new data-center air and water permits until July 2027, giving lawmakers time to consider safeguards. El Niño Alert: UNICEF warns 1.3 million Cambodian children face climate-related risks, while NOAA puts the chance of this El Niño becoming the strongest since 1950 at 83%. Ocean and Nature: Pacific leaders and scientists are pushing to turn research on ocean acidification into action, while coastal leaders urge governments to connect biodiversity and climate plans. Climate Finance: The UN chief called on developed countries to triple adaptation finance to $300 billion a year. The Green Climate Fund also approved planning support for a Fiji agriculture guarantee aimed at widening access to climate-smart investment.

Clean Energy: Australia has expanded rooftop-solar subsidies to systems as large as 1 megawatt and signed a pledge to make rooftop solar a mainstream energy priority. IRENA says renewables must scale rapidly, with global capacity rising from 5.2 terawatts today to about 38 terawatts by 2050. Climate Risks: El Niño could bring unusually dry or wet conditions to more than 190 million children across Asia-Pacific by year-end, UNICEF warns; about 1.3 million Cambodian children are at risk. Climate Finance: UN chief António Guterres is urging wealthy countries to provide $300 billion a year for climate adaptation, alongside a broader increase in climate finance. Nature: A survey found widespread bleaching and reef degradation across Tokelau’s atolls, with researchers stressing that protection can help healthy areas recover. Data Centres: Malaysian officials say new facilities must meet strict water-efficiency and green-technology standards as AI investment grows.

Climate extremes: September was the world’s second-warmest on record as a powerful El Niño warmed the Pacific and helped fuel a record run of long-lived hurricanes. Food and farming: Extreme rainfall may threaten cocoa yields more than heat or water shortages, damaging flowers and young pods and spreading disease. A separate investigation found that fish farming can drive wild catches for feed, while concealing environmental and labor harms. Nature: Costa Rica has returned 13 white-lipped peccaries to a national park after an 18-year absence; tern colonies in England also show signs of recovery despite disease and severe weather. Climate action: As tens of thousands marched in Brussels, the EU pressed for stronger cuts ahead of COP31, while the summit’s president urged wealthy nations to spend more on climate action than defence.

Climate Leadership: Sultan Nazrin urged leaders at the Global Tipping Points Conference in Kuala Lumpur to act before consensus is complete, warning that shifting monsoons, warming seas and heat are already affecting communities. Heat Alert: El Niño pushed sea temperatures in a key Pacific zone to a September record of 29.70°C. Global temperatures that month were the second-highest on record, 1.63°C above preindustrial levels; Copernicus says a strong El Niño could keep readings above 1.5°C into 2027. Climate Science: The world’s leading climate body remains deadlocked over when to publish its next major assessment, raising concern it may miss the 2028 UN climate talks. Energy Fight: Colorado utilities are challenging federal orders keeping a coal plant open past its planned retirement, as energy costs and climate policy become midterm issues. Resilience: The UK is launching a flood and drought taskforce after a hot, dry summer, with community experience meant to shape plans. Waste and Coasts: Plastic found at every stop on a Fiji coastal campaign has renewed calls for better collection and recycling, while WRAP is developing a UK textile-waste plan amid 1.45 million tonnes discarded annually.

War’s Environmental Toll: Iran’s foreign minister says strikes on oil facilities risk contaminating soil and water, with damage that could persist for decades. Extreme Heat: Scientists warn a record-breaking El Niño could intensify heat and disrupt weather; September was the world’s second-hottest on record, with ocean temperatures reaching a new high. Climate Finance: The COP31 host says wealthy nations should spend far more on climate than defence, as Pacific leaders press for faster funding. Water Pollution: An Iraqi lawmaker says nearly 6 million cubic metres of wastewater enter the Tigris and Euphrates daily, worsening pollution as drought lowers river flows. Decarbonisation: Higher energy costs have prompted about half of Southeast Asian firms to delay climate plans. Nature at Risk: Warming is weakening Atlantic circulation, while chinstrap penguin numbers on Zavodovski Island have fallen 63%. Climate Accountability: Climate lawsuits are gaining ground as governments scale back action.

Climate Litigation: Courts are becoming a counterweight as governments retreat from climate action. Australia’s top court blocked a coal-mine expansion, while international courts have affirmed countries’ climate duties. War’s Environmental Toll: Iran’s foreign minister warned that strikes on oil facilities risk lasting soil and water contamination and damage to ecosystems; the claims come amid ongoing conflict. Extreme Heat: A super El Niño is developing as September ranked the world’s second-hottest on record and ocean temperatures set a new high, raising fears of intensified weather extremes. Climate Finance: Ahead of COP31, the summit’s president urged wealthy countries to spend more on climate action than defence, while Pacific nations warn funding is arriving too slowly. Ecosystem Stress: California’s coast redwoods slow photosynthesis during extreme heat, a newly reported study finds, adding to concerns about forests’ resilience as temperatures rise.

Climate Diplomacy: Nepal’s foreign minister used talks in Australia and a Pacific pre-COP31 meeting to press for climate finance, Himalayan conservation and better early-warning systems, highlighting the shared risks facing mountain and island nations. Extreme Weather: Hurricane Isaias forced shutdowns of about 72% of US Gulf offshore oil production; a recent report also links climate change to the storm’s intensification. El Niño and Food Security: Scientists warn a potentially powerful El Niño could deepen food insecurity, while Horn of Africa agencies are working to turn forecasts into early aid for at-risk communities. Caspian Sea: The five countries bordering the shrinking sea agreed to create a joint mechanism to address its environmental problems. Warming and Nature: August was jointly the hottest on record, briefly pushing global temperatures above 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels. Researchers say coral reefs are moving toward cooler waters, but migration may not keep pace with rapid warming.

Climate-Smart Farming: Kenyan scientists are developing resilient planting materials as erratic weather, drought and crop disease threaten harvests. The region also faces El Niño rains that could flood fields. Wildlife: A new international project will protect Egyptian vultures across their Balkan-to-Africa migration route, targeting poisoning, poaching and dangerous power lines. Water Stress: The World Meteorological Organization says 2025 was among the driest years in decades, with river flows below normal across about 36% of monitored basins as groundwater and glaciers decline. Climate Diplomacy: Nepal is urging grant-based adaptation funding and action on loss and damage ahead of COP31, while Pacific leaders press for climate commitments to be delivered. Caspian Sea: Five countries agreed to create a commission to investigate falling water levels and coordinate a response, with its first meeting planned for 2027. Climate Litigation: The U.S. Supreme Court is weighing whether federal law can block Boulder’s climate claims against oil companies, a decision with implications for similar cases nationwide.

Climate Adaptation: A survivor of Nepal’s August flash flood says authorities gave just five minutes’ warning before the torrent killed her siblings and destroyed her home. Nepal is urging COP31 leaders to deliver faster, grant-based adaptation and disaster-recovery funding. El Niño Alert: China’s climate centre says a super El Niño formed in September. UNICEF warns the 2026–27 cycle could put more than 347 million children at risk from extreme weather, displacement, disease and school closures. Wildlife Decline: WWF reports monitored wildlife populations have fallen 73% since 1970, with freshwater populations down 85%; it says changes to food, energy and finance systems are key to reversing the losses. Caspian in Retreat: The sea is shrinking by an average of nine centimetres a year, Putin warned, putting ecosystems, fisheries and coastal livelihoods at risk. Alaska Oil Exploration: The Trump administration has waived case-by-case environmental reviews for many winter exploration activities in the National Petroleum Reserve, clearing a faster path for drilling.

Extreme Weather: China’s climate centre says a super El Niño formed in September, with eastern Pacific waters more than 3°C above average. Forecasters expect further warming and warn of greater heat and rainfall disruption. COP31: Pacific leaders are pressing for faster climate finance and action to keep 1.5°C within reach; the region’s climate fund remains about US$320 million short of its target. Fossil fuels, however, are off the summit agenda. Climate Litigation: As governments’ climate ambitions falter, courts are becoming a key battleground: Australia’s top court blocked a coal-mine expansion over its climate impact, while the U.S. Supreme Court considers a climate lawsuit against oil companies. Resilience Funding: Bangladesh and IFAD launched two investments worth US$324 million to strengthen climate-resilient rural infrastructure, livelihoods and food systems, aiming to reach 2.5 million people.

COP31 Pressure: Pacific leaders are pressing wealthy nations to turn climate pledges into accessible funding, with the region’s climate fund still about $320 million short of its target. The push comes as fossil-fuel production keeps rising and fossil fuels are expected to stay off the summit agenda. Heat and El Niño: The WMO warns El Niño is strengthening and could drive record heat and disruptive weather, compounding climate risks worldwide. Vanishing Glaciers: New Zealand’s glaciers have lost 46% of their volume since 1997; a new national report warns they could disappear entirely by 2100 under high emissions, threatening freshwater and mountain ecosystems. Cleaner Parks: A new partnership will let South Africa’s Kruger National Park source about a quarter of its electricity from renewable energy. Climate and Conflict: UN agencies warn that violence in Sudan is displacing civilians already facing hunger and climate shocks.

COP31 Countdown: Pacific leaders are heading to November’s climate summit demanding faster finance, stronger action and protection of the 1.5°C goal. Organisers plan a presidency-led blueprint, while the EU is tempering expectations for a major breakthrough. Climate Finance: The Pacific Resilience Facility remains US$320 million short of its US$500 million target, even as new pledges arrive and the Green Climate Fund considers another US$300 million for the region. Mozambique, meanwhile, secured US$47 million for climate response and sustainable energy. Climate Impacts: The WMO warns El Niño could become one of the strongest since 1950, raising risks of heat and extreme weather. In Liberia, heavier rainfall and poor drainage have worsened Monrovia flooding, affecting nearly 20,000 families. Climate Accountability: Australia’s High Court has ruled against a coal mine expansion, finding climate harms relevant to approval decisions; the U.S. Supreme Court is weighing whether climate lawsuits against oil companies can proceed. Nature Under Pressure: A study found Zavodovski Island’s chinstrap penguin population fell by about two-thirds from 2011 to 2025, likely due to climate-driven changes in ocean food chains. An international operation also arrested more than 230 people in a crackdown on environmental crimes across Latin America and the Caribbean.

Pacific Climate Finance: Leaders at pre-COP31 urged wealthy nations to turn promises into funding, warning that Pacific communities face rising seas and other worsening climate threats. A new regional fund has received a boost, but remains well short of its $500 million goal. Climate Litigation: The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments over whether Boulder’s climate lawsuit against oil companies can proceed; a ruling could shape similar cases nationwide. In Australia, the High Court blocked a coal mine expansion, citing climate harms. Nature: WWF’s latest report says monitored wildlife populations have fallen an average 73% since 1970, with habitat loss the leading threat. It points to conservation successes and calls for food production to change to help avert biodiversity collapse. Environmental Crime: An Interpol operation across nine Latin American and Caribbean countries led to 233 arrests, rescued more than 1,000 animals and identified 60,000 hectares of illegally cleared forest. El Niño: The IMF is preparing support for vulnerable countries as forecasts warn of severe impacts on crops, food security and prices.

Mountain-to-ocean climate diplomacy: Nepal’s FM Shisir Khanal unveiled a “Sagarmatha to the Sea” partnership linking Himalayan and Pacific island vulnerability, arguing glacier melt and sea-level rise are one crisis—and pushing for more adaptation and loss-and-damage finance ahead of COP31. Pacific climate finance pressure: Pacific leaders at Pre-COP31 in Fiji, including Fiji PM Rabuka and Palau President Whipps, demanded faster, grant-based funding and warned COP31 can’t be another “talk fest” as adaptation finance covers only a fraction of needs. Implementation over intent: India’s Bhupender Yadav urged faster Paris Agreement delivery at Pre-COP31, stressing 1.5°C requires full means of implementation. Amazon risk signal: Brazil election results put Flávio Bolsonaro in pole position, raising alarms for Amazon protection and climate impacts. Legal climate showdown: The US Supreme Court heard arguments in Boulder County’s bid to make oil firms pay for climate damages, setting up a major precedent. Environmental compliance: Finland ordered Google to halt preparatory work at two data center sites pending required impact assessments. Food security emergency: FAO warned conflict and funding gaps are driving crisis-level hunger across the Near East and North Africa, calling for urgent emergency agricultural support.

Climate Justice & Rights: Philippines lawmakers and Global Witness data spotlight the deadly toll on land and environmental defenders, with 12 killings recorded in 2025 and calls for stronger protection and prevention. High Seas Biodiversity: The Philippines urges cross-border cooperation under the BBNJ process to protect biodiversity in the open ocean ahead of COP31. Pacific Climate Pressure: Tuvalu warns COP31 can’t be “another talk shop” as leaders visit the atoll nation to see sea-level impacts firsthand. Disaster-Resilient Infrastructure: Nepal’s infrastructure minister calls for a “paradigm shift” toward disaster-resistant, water-focused planning after floods and landslides. Food Waste & Methane: A new push argues rotting food is supercharging warming, pointing to methane cuts via waste diversion and circular systems. Carbon Markets: Kenya launches a guide to attract high-integrity carbon investments while protecting communities and national climate goals. Legal Climate Accountability: The U.S. Supreme Court hears arguments in Boulder County’s climate-cost case against major oil firms, with major implications for future lawsuits. Environmental Enforcement: Finland halts key preparatory work at planned Google data centers until required environmental impact assessments are completed. Wetlands Protected: Michigan court rules a cannabis farm illegally destroyed protected wetlands, reinforcing enforcement of environmental safeguards.